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Holiday Travel Risks Spike Earlier Than Many Expect, New Data Shows

Photo by Riccardo: https://www.pexels.com/photo/vehicle-on-roadway-near-trees-228094/
Photo by Riccardo: https://www.pexels.com/photo/vehicle-on-roadway-near-trees-228094/

A new national analysis from The Millar Law Firm reveals that some of the most dangerous travel periods of the year arrive well before summer. While Americans often associate road‑travel risks with holidays like Memorial Day or the Fourth of July, the firm’s review of federal and state crash data shows that Presidents Day weekend and the broader spring‑break season are emerging as two of the most crash‑prone windows on the calendar.

The findings come as AAA continues to report year‑over‑year increases in holiday travel volume, signaling that early‑year road congestion is becoming a permanent trend rather than a seasonal anomaly.

National Crash Patterns: What the Data Shows

The Millar Law Firm’s study analyzed crash totals and fatality rates across major U.S. holidays, uncovering several consistent patterns:

  • Labor Day remains the deadliest holiday, with 2,521 fatalities nationwide in the most recent dataset.
  • Memorial Day and Independence Day continue to show elevated DUI‑related crashes, driven by late‑night travel and alcohol‑heavy celebrations.
  • Thanksgiving, despite being the busiest travel holiday, sees lower crash concentrations because most travel occurs before the holiday itself.
  • States with the highest holiday fatality rates per 100,000 residents include Montana, Mississippi, and Wyoming, reflecting long rural roadways and higher average speeds.

These national trends set the stage for understanding why early‑year travel—especially in February and March—has become increasingly hazardous.

Presidents Day Weekend: A Quiet but High‑Risk Holiday

Presidents Day weekend consistently ranks among the top five most dangerous holiday travel periods, even though it receives far less public attention than Thanksgiving or Christmas.

Key findings from The Millar Law Firm’s analysis include:

  • One national dataset recorded 298 crashes during Presidents Day weekend, placing it above Thanksgiving and New Year’s.
  • In a separate year‑over‑year comparison, the holiday ranked fourth, with 406 crashes, underscoring its persistent risk level.
  • Contributing factors include:
    • Winter weather across much of the country
    • School breaks that increase family travel
    • The first major long‑weekend getaway of the year, which boosts interstate traffic

The data suggests that many drivers underestimate the risks associated with this mid‑February holiday, particularly in regions prone to snow, ice, and reduced visibility.

Spring Break: A Multi‑Week Surge in Roadway Danger

Unlike single‑day holidays, spring break spans several weeks from early March through mid‑April, creating a prolonged period of heavy travel. The Millar Law Firm’s study shows that this extended window mirrors the same risk patterns seen during Presidents Day weekend—only on a larger scale.

Notable trends include:

  • Increased long‑distance driving among college students and families
  • Congestion spikes in popular destinations across Florida, Texas, Arizona, and coastal states
  • Higher rates of DUI‑related crashes in tourist‑heavy counties
  • More nighttime travel as students and vacationers drive between events, beaches, and nightlife districts

The combination of young drivers, long road trips, and alcohol‑related activity makes spring break one of the most consistently dangerous travel periods each year.

Georgia Snapshot: A Microcosm of National Trends

Georgia’s crash data aligns closely with national patterns, according to The Millar Law Firm’s review of GDOT records:

  • Presidents Day weekend recorded 406 crashes, ranking among the state’s most dangerous holiday periods.
  • Only Veterans Day, Memorial Day, and Columbus Day saw higher totals.
  • Thanksgiving weekend, despite heavy travel, recorded just 254 crashes, reinforcing the national trend that travel is more spread out.

The Bottom Line for 2026 Travelers

The Millar Law Firm’s study makes one point clear: the year’s earliest travel periods are becoming some of the most hazardous. As millions prepare for Presidents Day weekend getaways and spring‑break road trips, understanding these data‑driven risks can help travelers plan smarter, avoid peak congestion, and stay safer on the road.

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